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The leader of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a pivotal journey to Washington to confer with American leader Donald Trump. This marks the first in-person meeting for the two figures following months of escalating strains and sharp rhetoric.

Topics for Discussion

The situation in Venezuela, drug trafficking, energy, regional stability, and US strikes on suspected drug vessels are expected to be top on the agenda when they gather at the White House on the scheduled day.

Background of Tensions

Although the two men were polite in a telephone conversation after a January US military operation, Petro has since said he feels there is a "genuine danger" of armed intervention against Colombia. Trump, in turn, has previously remarked that a such action in Colombia "seems like a good idea".

The upcoming summit comes after an extended period of the two leaders exchanging criticisms. Petro has often criticised ongoing US attacks on alleged narco-vessels in the regional waters, as well as the US administration's immigration policies.

"His stance shifted," the US President was quoted as saying prior to the Washington meeting.

Areas of Disagreement

On the US side, Trump has charged Petro's government of not doing enough to stop the flow of narcotics heading north, and has pledged to extend strikes to land targets across the area.

However, the acrimony appeared to dissipate following a "cordial" telephone conversation between the two leaders, which a source from Bogotá later described as an 180-degree turn "by both parties".

Diplomatic Bridge

According to diplomatic sources, one man – Rand Paul – was instrumental in setting up the dialogue. "I believe in diplomacy and I thought our ties were going in the wrong direction," the lawmaker was quoted as saying. "And I'd like to see our relations to get better."

Regional Stability and the Guerrilla Group

Prior to the visit, Colombian stated that much of the conversation would focus on mutual US and Colombian worries over stability in the neighboring country, with which Colombia shares an extensive frontier.

A significant portion of that frontier is controlled of the ELN. This armed faction, founded in the 1960s, controls narco-trade, extortion, contraband, and illegal mining in frontier regions and reportedly works with compromised officials within the Caracas administration.

For Trump, tackling the threat of the ELN will be crucial to guaranteeing safety for US firms engaged in Venezuela's energy sector. Experts note that the ELN has the potential to spoil economic ambitions by targeting international businesses and employees, as it has previously done in Colombia.

Counter-Narcotics Collaboration

An similarly urgent matter for the two leaders will be the struggle against cocaine trafficking from Colombia, the global biggest source of the drug. In November, Petro instituted a halt on information exchange with US authorities following Trump's threats.

The US has, conversely, formally designated Colombia as a country that has "not met its obligations" in combating the narcotics trade. It has also enacted sanctions on Colombian officials, including the leader and members of his family.

"Combating the cocaine trade is impossible without Colombia," said a regional security expert. "The threat to sever Colombian intelligence could also weaken all enforcement efforts."

Potential Outcomes

But even with multiple areas for cooperation, the potential for a clash exists. "The US President's stance can be volatile," observed a former diplomat. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some concessions to avoid Trump's anger... But one never knows."

For the Colombian leader, even a difficult encounter could be advantageous. His time in office ends in the coming months, and the results of the talks could influence the electoral chances of his preferred successor.

"In some ways, he's kind of in a win-win position," noted a regional expert. "A positive outcome takes the air out of criticism... If it doesn't, he's protecting national sovereignty. He could use that in his favour."